#Reference 2.0

The Reference 2.0 scenario includes IRA incentives and the new EPA power plant rules, as well as higher growth in data center (DC) load (Figure 16). These inclusions, particularly the policy changes, lead to much higher shares of renewable generation and the retirement of all coal-fired capacity by 2040. Certain IRA incentives, including the clean electricity production tax credit, are extended through 2050 because the legislated emissions intensity threshold of 75% below 2022 is not reached in that timeframe. Combined with continued cost declines in renewable and battery technologies, these policy drivers result in a roughly 60% share for renewables in the generation mix. As in the Reference 1.0 scenario, electricity demand grows significantly with transport electrification and is higher in the buildings sector due to both DC load growth and IRA incentives for heat pump adoption.