#Reference 1.0

In the Reference 1.0 scenario, which omits IRA incentives and new EPA power plant rules, two significant changes occur by 2050 relative to the current system, both driven primarily by economics (Figure 15). Electricity demand for transportation displaces most petroleum use as battery electric vehicles reach roughly 80-90% adoption in on-road vehicle segments (both personal light-duty and fleet medium-/heavy-duty). This change drives the share of electricity in final energy to around 41%. At the same time, natural gas use for generation expands significantly, displacing most coal-fired generation. The renewable share increases from around 19% today to 27% in 2050.