LCRI Net-Zero 2050: Sensitivity Analysis and Updated Scenarios
Introduction & Framing
As part of the Low-Carbon Resources Initiative (LCRI), EPRI and GTI Energy led an integrated energy system scenario modeling exercise in 2022 to evaluate alternative technology strategies for achieving economy-wide net-zero emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the U.S. by 2050. The 2022 Net-Zero report provided insights on potential pathways and technology trade-offs based on three scenarios around costs and availability of key resources.
Building on this study, the LCRI has developed an updated analysis – Net-Zero Scenarios 2.0. This update reflects a broader range of technology sensitivity cases, as well as an expanded set of drivers reflecting recent developments, including evolving policy incentives and regulations and emerging trends in data center electricity use. The broader scenario space in this update provides additional insights into the timing, trajectory, and technologies to achieve net-zero goals, as well as updated reference cases. In the updated analysis, all scenarios include U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives, new U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) power plant rules (as specified at the time of publication in December 2024), and accelerated load growth associated with data center development. The sensitivity analysis includes varying technology availability and cost assumptions for advanced nuclear, electrolysis, carbon capture and storage, and bioenergy. Additionally, the updated scenarios assess the implications of fuel price uncertainty and limited flexibility in how far individual sectors and regions are required to reduce direct emissions under an economy-wide target.