LCRI Net-Zero 2050

Pipeline Gas and Liquid Fuels

Pipeline Gas

Figure 39. U.S. Total Pipeline Gas Demand in 2050. See Table 1 for scenario definitions. CC = carbon capture; RNG = renewable natural gas; SNG = synthetic natural gas.

The extent and type of pipeline gas demand varies significantly across scenarios (Figure 39). In the Reference 1.0 scenario, which excludes IRA incentives and other updates, total gas demand in 2050 is higher than current demand. In all other scenarios, gas demand declines over time but remains significant in all cases except the limited net-zero scenarios without CCS. As would be expected, the scale of demand is sensitive to the gas price, as higher fuel prices imply greater shares of renewables and electrification. Comparing the Reference 2.0 scenario to the Net-Zero Ref-Tech case, gas demand in 2050 actually increases slightly in the net-zero scenario, albeit with a much higher share used with carbon capture. In most cases, the pipeline gas mix remains primarily composed of fossil-based natural gas, expect in cases with limited CDR flexibility where renewable natural gas (RNG) is an important low-carbon substitute.

Importantly, gas capacity for electric generation increases significantly relative to today and is less sensitive to scenario variation (Figure 40). In most net-zero cases, the amount of gas capacity is similar to that in the reference scenarios, again with a higher share deployed with carbon capture. As discussed in the Electric Generation and Capacity section, the need for gas capacity scales with its peak requirements for gas delivery rather than its annual demand for generation.

Figure 40. U.S. Total Gas-Fired Capacity in Electric Sector in 2050. See Table 1 for scenario definitions. CC = carbon capture. NGCC = natural gas combined cycle. CT = combustion turbine. Flex Fuel indicates combustion units capable of burning gas, hydrogen, or renewable fuels.

Liquid Fuels

Figure 41. U.S. Total Liquid Fuels Demand in 2050. See Table 1 for scenario definitions. Petr. = petroleum-based fuels; Rnw. = renewable fuels; Syn. = synthetic fuels.

Liquid fuel use declines significantly in all scenarios relative to current levels as a result of electrification in on-road transportation (Figure 41). Remaining demand for liquid fuels, primarily for non-road transportation, is met in most scenarios with a mix of petroleum and biofuels, where the share is sensitive to bioenergy costs. In a few scenarios, particularly those with limited flexibility and limited bioenergy, synthetic jet fuel is deployed. Note that other synthetic liquid fuel pathways were not included in the model.

Last updated: December 18, 2024