#Net-Zero Ref-Tech

The Net-Zero Ref-Tech scenario shows a cost-effective resource mix to achieve an economy-wide net-zero target with reference technology assumptions (Figure 19). Relative to the corresponding Reference 2.0 scenario without the economy-wide net-zero target, there are several key changes that enable the required emissions reductions. The electric generation mix exhibits the most significant change, with generation from conventional gas largely replaced with gas with carbon capture. The renewable mix also changes to include more wind and less solar and an overall share of 58%, as the IRA incentives are phased out and replaced with a harmonized carbon policy. Accelerated electrification in the buildings and industry sectors drives the electric share in final energy to 45% and leads to lower delivered gas use, although some positive emissions remain in these sectors. The expanded use of bioenergy with CCS in the conversion to biofuels, direct air capture, and incremental expansion of natural CO₂ sinks provide net CO₂ removals to achieve the economy-wide net-zero balance.