LCRI Net-Zero 2050: U.S. Economy-Wide Deep Decarbonization Scenario Analysis
Introduction and Framing
The U.S. government, along with several states, cities, and some private companies, has articulated a target of achieving net-zero economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. The mid-century net-zero target is the long-run context for the near-term goal of reducing economy-wide emissions by 50% relative to 2005 by 2030, submitted by the U.S. to the international Paris Agreement. While formal policies are not yet in place to achieve the 2050 goals, the net-zero benchmark provides a clear strategic direction for characterizing the energy transition in the U.S. Energy system modeling plays a crucial role in evaluating alternative decarbonization options and identifying strategic interactions and technology development needs. While many of the options for near-term decarbonization rely on scaling up available technologies, achieving deep decarbonization targets in the longer term will require the development and demonstration of new and innovative technology solutions, the focus of the Low Carbon Resource Initiative (LCRI).
The LCRI has conducted an integrated scenario modeling exercise to evaluate alternative technology strategies for achieving economy-wide net-zero emissions of CO2 in the U.S. by 2050.[1] This research aims to answer the following questions: Based on a set of assumptions about how technology cost and performance evolve over time, what is a least-cost approach to deep decarbonization in the U.S.? How does the approach depend on technology cost and availability? What is the role of key low-carbon technologies, including low-carbon fuels based on bioenergy, hydrogen, and related pathways? This analysis highlights several key insights into the potential role and value of low-carbon technologies, informing both R&D strategy and decarbonization investments over the next decade.
This analysis does not include the specific incentives in the recently enacted U.S. Inflation Reduction Act. ↩︎