LCRI Net-Zero 2050

Energy End-Use

Figure 35. Final Energy Across Scenarios by Sector (including economy-wide shares of supply mix for pipeline gas and liquid fuels)

The preceding section has described the nature and magnitude of changes on the supply side of the energy system needed to achieve net-zero targets. Although many of the most cost-effective decarbonization strategies involve supply-side technologies, there are also important opportunities for the adoption of low-carbon technologies in the end-use sectors. As discussed above, efficiency, end-use electrification, and fuel-switching are major levers for reducing CO2 emissions. However, additional technologies and the adoption of alternative low-carbon fuels will be needed in the end-use sectors to achieve economy-wide net-zero targets. The opportunities and challenges for low-carbon fuel adoption vary by sector. This analysis modeled trade-offs among a set of candidate end-use technologies explicitly for many individual applications. Technology adoption was projected based on the total cost of ownership, where the price of delivered fuels includes an implicit carbon penalty based on the marginal cost of emissions and the carbon intensity of the fuel supply chain modeled simultaneously. Figure 35 shows final energy use by sector and fuel across scenarios. The subsequent sections explore each sector in more detail.

Transportation

In the transportation sectors, electrification of on-road segments in all scenarios is the most significant trend, along with efficiency improvements in vehicle energy consumption per service mile. Biofuels, particularly renewable diesel in medium- and heavy-duty segments, are used to displace some remaining petroleum. In the Net-Zero Limited Options scenario, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel are all supplied with renewable or synthetic alternatives. Direct use of hydrogen in fuel cell vehicles is limited due to competition with battery electric vehicles and biofuels.

See Transportation for more details.

Industry

In the industrial sectors, which are comprised of many forms of energy use (such as process heat, machine drive, facilities, and non-road vehicles), efficiency and electrification are also significantly increased in response to the net-zero target. However, industry decarbonization also includes carbon capture for some larger processes, particularly cement manufacturing, as well as the substitution of pipeline gas with biomass, liquid biofuels, and direct use of hydrogen. Bioenergy can be used as boiler fuel for steam production, and the direct use of hydrogen (i.e., not blended with natural gas but delivered via new dedicated pipeline infrastructure) is an option for both high-temperature process heat (e.g., for direct reduced iron as input to steel manufacturing) and non-road vehicles and equipment in the construction, agriculture, and mining sectors.

See Industry for more details.

Buildings

In the building sectors, the primary change across scenarios is the extent of efficiency and electrification. Its share of electricity in final energy increases from around 50% today to about 70% in 2050 in the most restrictive Net-Zero Limited Options scenario, with final energy declining by as much as 30% despite growing population and incomes. The remaining non-electric fuel use is primarily pipeline gas (i.e., a “drop-in” equivalent gas blend delivered through existing infrastructure), which, as discussed previously, has a declining carbon footprint based on a combination of CO2 offsets from negative emissions and substitution of low-carbon alternatives in the pipeline gas supply.

See Buildings for more details.

Last updated: March 9, 2023